ASSA2000

The ASSA2000 model is a model of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the South African population and on the population in each province. The model was released in June 2001 and a modified version was released in March of 2002. The model has been superseded by the ASSA2002 and ASSA2003 models, and users should note that the ASSA2000 version is now considered to have overstated the extent of the South African epidemic. This is partly because the ASSA2000 model does not allow for the effects of HIV prevention and treatment programmes, and partly because the ASSA2000 model does not take into account recent evidence regarding the relationship between HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic attenders and HIV prevalence in the general female population.

Models

ASSA 2000 'lite' version

Documents Describing the ASSA2000 Model

Dorrington R.E. (2000) The ASSA2000 suite of models. Actuarial Society of South Africa Convention. Somerset West, South Africa.

Dorrington R. E., Bradshaw D. and Budlender D. (2002) HIV/AIDS profile in the provinces of South Africa: Indicators for 2002. Joint publication of the Centre for Actuarial Research, Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of South Africa. [http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/CARE/]

Papers that have used the ASSA2000 model

Johnson L. and Dorrington R. (2001) The impact of AIDS on orphanhood in South Africa: a quantitative analysis. CARE Monograph No. 4. Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town [http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/CARE/]

Bradshaw D., Johnson L., Schneider H., Bourne D. and Dorrington R. (2002) Orphans of the HIV/AIDS epidemic: the time to act is now. Medical Research Council Policy Brief No. 2. [http://www.mrc.ac.za/policybriefs/2policy2002.pdf]

Johnson L. and Dorrington R. (2002) The demographic and epidemiological impact of HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention programmes: an evaluation based on the ASSA2000 model. Actuarial Society of South Africa Convention, Cape Town, 31 Oct – 1 Nov 2002.

Geffen N., Nattrass N. and Raubenheimer C. (2003) The cost of HIV prevention and treatment interventions in South Africa. Centre for Social Science Research. Working Paper 28. [http://www.cssr.uct.ac.za/pubs_cssr.html]

Nattrass N. (2004) The moral economy of AIDS in South Africa. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press

Department of Health (2003) Operational plan for comprehensive HIV and AIDS care, management and treatment for South Africa. [www.gov.za/reports/2003/aidsplan/report.zip]

Bradshaw D., Groenewald P., Laubscher R., Nannan N., Nojilana B., Norman R., Pieterse D., Schneider M., Bourne D., Timæus I., Dorrington R. and Johnson L. (2003) Initial burden of disease estimates for South Africa, 2000. South African Medical Journal. Vol. 93: 682-8

Meintjes H., Budlender D., Giese S. and Johnson L. (2003) Children 'in need of care' or in need of cash? Questioning social security provisions for orphans in the context of the South African AIDS pandemic. Joint working paper by the Children's Institute and the Centre for Actuarial Research. [http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/CARE/]

Day C. and Gray A. (2005). Health and related indicators. In P. Ijumba and P. Barron, Eds. South African Health Review 2005, Health Systems Trust. [http://www.hst.org.za/publications/682]