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 Models  »   Older Models  »   ASSA2003 


The ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic model was published in November 2005 and has been superseded by the ASSA2008 model as released by the Actuarial Society of South Africa. The model represents the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its demographic impact on the population of South Africa. The model extends the earlier ASSA2002 model by providing estimates of the impact of HIV/AIDS in each province. Click on the ‘Note to users of the ASSA2003 model’ link for more information on the models and summary outputs that are listed on this page.

The ASSA2003 model is now considered to over-estimate levels of AIDS mortality and orphanhood in recent years, and prospective model users are therefore encouraged to use the ASSA2008 model rather than the ASSA2003 model.


ASSA2003 lite


ASSA 2003 Full


Assumptions Prov Lite

AssumptionsProvlite060315.zip [ 1.15 Mb ~ 6.56 minutes @ 56kbps]

Assumptions Prov
AssumptionsProv051124b.zip [ 2.84 Mb ~ 16.15 minutes @ 56kbps]

Summary Outputs

Prov Output

ProvOutput051129.zip [ 1.23 Mb ~ 7.02 minutes @ 56kbps]

Summary Statistics

SummaryStatsAssa2003.xls [ 209.50 kb ~ 1.16 minutes @ 56kbps]

Life Orphan Output

OrphansProv060706.zip [ 452.40 kb ~ 2.51 minutes @ 56kbps]

User Information

Note to users if the Assa 2003 model

Note to the users of Assa 2003 model.doc [ 29.00 kb ~ 9.67 seconds @ 56kbps]

ASSA 2003 AIDS and Demographic models: user guide

Assa2003UserGuide.doc [ 423.50 kb ~ 2.35 minutes @ 56kbps]

Documents describing the ASSA 2003 model

Dorrington R.E., Bradshaw D., Johnson L. and Daniel T. (2006) The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National and Provincial Indicators for 2006. Joint publication by the Centre for Actuarial Research, the Burden of Disease Research Unit (Medical Research Council) and the Actuarial Society of South Africa.

The Demographic Impact of HIV Indicators.pdf [ 519.90 kb ~ 2.89 minutes @ 56kbps]

Key indicators from the ASSA2003 model

Other documents

ASSA AIDS Committee. (2006) Initial observations on the comparison of the 2005 HSRC household HIV prevalence and behaviour survey against estimates from the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic model.

Initial_comparison_of_ASSA2003_and_HSRC05.pdf [ 160.40 kb ~ 53.47 seconds @ 56kbps]

Papers that have used the ASSA2003 model

Nattrass N. (2006) South Africa's "rollout" of antiretroviral therapy: a critical assessment. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 43(5): 618-623

copyright © ASSA Aids Committee 2011