ASSA2003

The ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic model was published in November 2005 and has been superseded by the ASSA2008 model as released by the Actuarial Society of South Africa. The model represents the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its demographic impact on the population of South Africa. The model extends the earlier ASSA2002 model by providing estimates of the impact of HIV/AIDS in each province. Click on the ‘Note to users of the ASSA2003 model’ link for more information on the models and summary outputs that are listed on this page.

The ASSA2003 model is now considered to over-estimate levels of AIDS mortality and orphanhood in recent years, and prospective model users are therefore encouraged to use the ASSA2008 model rather than the ASSA2003 model.

Models

ASSA2003 lite

ASSA 2003 Full

Summary Outputs

Prov Output

User Information

Note to users if the Assa 2003 model

Documents describing the ASSA 2003 model

Dorrington R.E., Bradshaw D., Johnson L. and Daniel T. (2006) The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National and Provincial Indicators for 2006. Joint publication by the Centre for Actuarial Research, the Burden of Disease Research Unit (Medical Research Council) and the Actuarial Society of South Africa.

Key indicators from the ASSA2003 model

Other documents

ASSA AIDS Committee. (2006) Initial observations on the comparison of the 2005 HSRC household HIV prevalence and behaviour survey against estimates from the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic model.

Papers that have used the ASSA2003 model

Nattrass N. (2006) South Africa's "rollout" of antiretroviral therapy: a critical assessment. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 43(5): 618-623